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elsa track

elsa track

elsa track

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ELSA

000 WTNT35 KNHC 092042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S. coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Surface observations during the past several hours indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky (Source: www.cyclocane.com)

000 WTNT45 KNHC 092042 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone's center. Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky (Source: www.cyclocane.com)

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared an emergency Saturday for South Florida, warning residents to get ready for Tropical Storm Elsa. (Source: www.jacksonville.com)

Elsa was first monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a tropical wave on June 29, and was designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone on the next day, while moving westward across the Atlantic. After showing signs of a better-defined low-level circulation, the cyclone was upgraded into a tropical depression early on July 1, then further to Tropical Storm Elsa a few hours later. After undergoing rapid intensification, the following morning on July 2, Elsa was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, before peaking later that day with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 991 millibars (29.3 inHg). This made Elsa the strongest July hurricane recorded in the eastern Caribbean Sea since Emily in 2005, (Source: en.wikipedia.org)

while nine people went missing due to the system off the coast of Cuba. The storm caused widespread damage throughout the states, especially in the Northeast. Atlantic Canada experienced many outages and high amounts of rainfall from a post-tropical Elsa. The storm dealt upwards of $1.2 billion in damages in the United States, with additional damage in the Caribbean. (Source: en.wikipedia.org)

Around that time, Elsa was moving at a forward speed of 29 mph (47 km/h), making it the fastest-moving Atlantic tropical cyclone undergoing rapid intensification in the deep tropics or the Gulf of Mexico, and also the first storm to undergo rapid intensification in that part of the Atlantic that early in the calendar year since another storm in 1908. (Source: en.wikipedia.org)

>> FROM WESH 2, THIS IS AN ELSA UPDATE. >> ELSA IS MANGKI ITS WAY UP TO THE PANHANDLE. DRIVE CARELESSLY MOVGIN IN -- DRIER AIR SEEMS TO BE MOVINGN. I SIDE. WEST OF OCALA, BASICALLY WEST OF I DEALING WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWERS. WE ARE STILL FEELING LIGHTND A MODERATE SHOWERS TOWARD THE EAST INTO VOLUSIA COUNTY. WE ARE WATCHING HAVE YOUR SHOWERS IN OSCEOLA COUNTY. THOSE EAR FIZZLING OUT AT THE CORE OF THE STORM. . A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UILNT 4:00. WE WILL WATCH SOME RAIN BANDS MOVE IN WHICH COULD CAUSE DOWNPOURS AND LOOK LESS FLOODING. THE GROUND IS ALREADY PRETTY SOAKED SO EXTRA RAIN WILL NOT HELP. 23 MILE PER HOUR RNAI GUSTS -- WIND GUSTS. THE WIND STARTS TO CALM DOWN AS TROPICAL STORM ELSA AGAINST TO LIFT. -- BEGINS TO LIFT. WE WLIL WATCH THESE IMPACTS AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HE WAS 2:00, MOST OF US EAR DRY DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE WEST. BY 4:00, WE WILL WATCH THIS RAIN BAND TO SWEEP THROUGH. SOME STRONGER BANDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS, A MAJORITY OF US STARTING TO CALM DN.OW WHICH IS WHY WE DROPPED THE COASTER CONCERNS AND TORNADO CONCERNS DOWN TO LOW. (Source: www.wesh.com)

 

 

 

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